The economist who created the consumer confidence index in the 1960s struggled for years to get anyone to take it seriously. But eventually, businesspeople came to view the survey asking people what they thought about the future as a valuable metric for decision-making.
There is no shortage of trust surveys these days. And whoever takes the temperature of New York’s residential and commercial brokers shows they have hope — even more so than before the pandemic.
The New York Real Estate Council confidence index hit 56 for residential brokers and a record 36 for commercial brokers, from minus 24 and minus 60, respectively, a year ago.
In the third quarter of 2019, confidence for residential brokers was 12, while that for commercial brokers was 20. The previous high for commercial brokers was 33 in the quarter immediately before the pandemic (which perhaps proves that the metric is not perfect).
Commercial broker confidence climbed 21 in the second quarter, while the rating for residential brokers fell from its record high of 60 last quarter.
REBNY’s survey uses a scale of -100 (uniformly negative responses) to 100 (uniformly positive responses). A score of 0 would indicate an equal number of brokers responding with positive and negative sentiment. Previous versions of the survey used a zero to 10 scale.
Despite the optimism, uncertainty still hangs over the market, especially for trading brokers. office workers stay inclined working from home, and tourism, especially international tourism, is lagging behind.
“Part of neutrality has to do with not really understanding the new normal yet. How are we going to work? said one respondent in the report. “This is an ever-changing market – although the improvement we are seeing is the result of [recovery from] Covid shutdown. “